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12/10/16

Bloomberg's "The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017"

Reader MM sends this along from Bloomie, its "Pessimist's Guide To 2017". An interesting read, worthy of a few minutes of your weekend.

BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND: The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "On the blackmailing of Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.to) by The Democratic Republic of Congo (from IKN394)". Write anything about a flavour-of-month junior miner and you'll get hits. Write a long piece pointing out an obvious weakness in its carefully marketed story and you'll get even more. And the hatemailers later too, bless 'em all.


Second Place: "Watching Pershing Securities...". and at time of posting Tuesday, that house was propping RLG at 19 and 19.5. It closed the week at 16c. Further downside to come from this moose pasture scam pumped by Scott Gibson and CEO.ca to the idiot end of the market.

 
First Place: "The IKN Blowjob Futures Market (FEL8)", which is what happens when I'm bored and sitting in an airport departure lounge.

12/9/16

Millrock (MRO.v): At least it wasn't after the close

When it's a Friday afternoon NR on drill results, you know it's not going to be the most sparkling news event of all time. And when all Millrock (MRO.v) can muster is a paragraph like this...
The best intersections were from hole 16-04 which returned 4.0 meters grading 0.69 grams per tonne gold and hole 16-09 which returned 6.3 meters grading 0.185 grams per tonne gold.
...the only thing left to do is applaud the company for getting the news out before the closing bell, rather than after it. The next bit was about how "Millrock and Centerra are evaluating options for further exploration of the Los Chinos property". Guess what that really means?

The Friday OT: Smashing Pumpkins; 1979

No particular reason for this one this week, just because it's a great song.



Youtube here.

Thinking of buying a company, CEO? Let Sibanye (SBGL) be a lesson to you

  • In theory at least it's the right time in the cycle for an all-cash buyout.
  • The fit is a reasonably good one, both on production and geopol risk terms.
  • When I read the NR this morning I thought it a good deal and it turned out that I wasn't alone, with one industry pal calling it "probably the most logical/stable deal on the table in 2016".

 But none of that stopped Sibanye (SBGL) from dropping 15% at the open this morning:



It's a tough market for mining M&A right now, worth keeping that in mind. Here's how the NR kicked off:

LITTLETON, Colo., Dec. 9, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Stillwater Mining Company ("Stillwater" or "the Company"; NYSE: SWC) today announced that it has entered into an agreement with Sibanye Gold Limited ("Sibanye"; JSE: SGL; NYSE: SBGL), under which Sibanye will acquire Stillwater for $18.00 per share in cash representing an aggregate enterprise value of $2.2 billion. The $18.00 per share transaction price represents a 61% premium to Stillwater's volume-weighted average share price over the 52 weeks prior to the announcement of the transaction, a 25% premium to its volume-weighted share price over the 30 trading days prior to the announcement and a 23% premium to its closing share price on December 8, 2016.  The transaction also represents a 14.0x multiple of IBES consensus 2017 EBITDA1 estimate.
Following a thorough review of Stillwater's strategic opportunities, including a process in which over 20 parties were contacted, the Company's Board of Directors has unanimously approved the transaction. continues here

Argentina's lower house of congress votes to re-impose mining export tax

You know all that hoopla and "isn't Argentina wonderful?" stuff we got from the rah-rah boys about Argentina under Macri, and you remember how his decision to repeal the export tax on mining was the Best. Thing. Ever? Well last night the lower house of congress (deputies) voted to re-install that very tax. It's a bill that needs to get past the upper house (senate) and then not be vetoed by Macri himself before it becomes law, but even if it doesn't prosper it's a serious shot across Macri's bows for the mid-term elections of next year.

When it comes to Argentina and mining, fools rush in where angels fear to tread (not that I'm particularly angelic, mind you).

Chart of the day is...

..the gold/silver ratio:




No answers, just a question today.

12/8/16

Inca One (IO.v), a scam pump

It doesn't need a brain surgeon to realize that...


...when a company with less than a $20m market cap and a negative working capital spends nearly a million on a bullshit pump campaign (example of the stupidity here)...


...it's for suckers and idiots only. 

You gringos really will buy anything.

Posting will be light today

For secret reasons.

12/7/16

The IKN Blowjob Futures Market (FEL8)

Here's an idea that sprang from an conversation with a pal but before going any further, let's make it clear that even though IKN is an equal opportunities blog and is fully down with all things equality, for purposes that should become clear the focus group for this futures market is heterosexual males. It has to be this way.

The concept is simple enough; In our world of insincerity and constant two-facedness, there's a near obligatory duty to kiss the ass of people during your working day. It could be your boss, your colleague, your customer, your supplier or any number of other labour workday contacts, but whoever it might be there's that need to plaster on a smile and talk pretty to them at some point in order to keep them onside, no matter how you might truly feel about the jerkoff in question.

With this in mind, we reach stage one. Imagine if you will this situation:

1) A colleague, person X, needs to kiss your ass.
2) You need to kiss the ass of your boss, person Y.

In such a case you can simply cut out the middleman by sending the following mail to person X:

"PLEASE BLOW PERSON Y"

In one fell swoop you have just simplified your day without adding to the workload of person X or affecting the day of person Y.

Or another situation: You have done a good piece of work and two people behest to you feel the need to congratulate you (even though deep down they hate your guts and you know it). In such a situation you write a simple mail, CC'd to both people:

"PERSON X AND PERSON Y, PLEASE BLOW EACH OTHER"

Once again, your day is simplified with no detriment to the others in the equation.

In fact, the logic of the blowjob clearing house is so compelling that the concept can be easily expanded. As blowjobs are fungible in nature, an exchange could be set up where one could buy blowjob futures (contract code FEL8) at which a person who needs to suck up to boss/customer/whoever just goes to, buys a blowjob futures contract and sends it to the target as a promissory note. The amount of time such a system would save the business world is incalculable! It would be one of the greatest innovations in productivity of the 21st century. The only thing to remember is to cancel out your futures contract before its expiry date, because if not the delivery day will be a bastard.



Chart of the day is...

...copper, monthlies:



No further comment.

12/6/16

And now a special message...

...for a couple of groups of ex-directors of a certain gold mining company. A blast from the past that's worthy of a new airing, given the circumstances:



Ho ho ho, guys.